It’s taken five events and a wild series of twists and turns, but finally a sense of order has begun to settle among the ratings and a handful of contenders have emerged.
With the veteran ranks in disarray and perennial prodigies like Julian and Jordy once again struggling to find consistency, the long-awaited changing of the guard has arrived and it’s a colourful mix of characters who’ve pushed their way to the drinks table and shouted ‘Hand me that champagne.’ With the best event of the season just behind us and J-Bay looming large, Tracks takes a look at the contenders, the top 4, and assesses their chances of finishing ahead of the rest.
Italo Ferreira has proved his mettle. Can he take it all the way. Photo: Sloane
Italo Ferreira
He’s been the name on everyone’s lips this year. The fast-swerving, head-turning, top-down-and-arm-out-the-side Italian Ferrari. After coming from nowhere in his rookie season, expectations were cranked into overdrive for Italo this year and he’s been touted as a world title contender since before things even got underway. And he’s doing well—fourth in the world, a couple of semis through the Aussie leg, a little behind the pace and maybe not the unstoppable force some predicted him to be, but in striking distance nonetheless.
Still, the thing about Italo is, for all the revelations of 2015, he remains relatively unproven. Yes, his versatility is impressive. Yes, he can beat the best on his day. Yes, he’s energetic and has that Medina-esque ability to build momentum and create opportunities for himself, but no, he hasn’t a won an event yet and when you’re talking world titles that’s a big thing. There’s no doubt a win is coming, and after that probably three or four or five, but in the here and now of 2016, with the three guys above him having experienced the joys of a Corona being sprayed directly in their faces while the crowd cheers and Joe stands around smiling like a stoned fifteen-year-old, it’s something he’s going to want to make happen pretty quickly if he fancies himself a chance of being the third Brazilian champ in as many years. Because while consistency can secure you a world title, nothing quite does it like kicking everyone’s arses a few events in a row.
Double John. Photo: WSL/Cestari
John John Florence
The most naturally gifted surfer on tour bar none, John John looks both better and worse in 2016 than ever before. Better because he’s currently sitting at third in the world and has learnt to win even when he’s not the form surfer of the event, as was the case in Rio. Better because he’s ditched the filming schedule and turned his focus solely to a title campaign and is surrounding himself with the type of people who can help get the job done. Worse because as a result we’re seeing less of that all-or-nothing John we love and thus the excitement factor has been turned down ten or fifteen percent. But that’s smart. That’s the kind of disciplined competitive approach that’ll see him through tough heats, that’ll help him build a house and put pressure on his opponents and do all that cliché stuff that sounds boring but is actually vital for anyone who wants to rise to the top.
Thing is, when John John is on, he doesn’t need any of that. When he’s on he’s the most devastating surfer in the world, competitive or otherwise. And we haven’t seen that from him this year. We’ve seen flashes, yeah, but none of those brilliant half-hour stretches where you can’t quite believe the level of surfing you’re seeing. Think France 2014. Think some of his heat performances at Pipe over the years. But even for someone as talented as John, those moments are fleeting, and they can’t be relied upon to win a title. That’s what the strategy is for. But strategy isn’t going to win him one either. No, for John John to win a world title it’s going to take a combination of those things, a beautiful union of unrestrained ability and savvy decision-making, of impeccable instinct and a calculating mind. And I don’t think there’s anybody who wouldn’t want to see that happen, because when it does it’ll be a sight to behold.
